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Labour Market 2009 – A Forecast

January 19, 2018 in News Tags: ,

Which brings us to the labour market for 2009? How will the German labour market in the coming year look like? We experience a year of crisis after the job boom? Labour market experts are currently experiencing a rollercoaster of emotions. Still they dealt with Germany’s longest labor market boom for decades and now the economic crisis forcing every week to new crisis scenarios. In their recent economic reports, leading economic research institutes forecast a crisis of the labour market in 2009. Even the Federal Agency for work (BA), which is usually rather cautious in their predictions, now admits: financial and economic crisis will make impact on the labour market in 2009. In one the experts disagree however about the extent of the labor market downturn. Meanwhile, the Nuremberg Institute for labour market and employment research (IAB) has revised its more optimistic forecast of autumn. The research centre of the Federal Agency anticipates a rise in unemployment for next year in the cut to about 30,000 to 3.29 million. In the autumn it came from a stagnation on the level from 2008.

The average value will however by the bonus”of sounding out job boom glossed over. In the course of the year the number of job seekers could rise to several hundred thousand. A good piece labour market experts of German big banks are more skeptical than the IAB. So about Commerzbank Economist Eckart Tuchtfeld against the backdrop of looming job losses in the car and in the financial industry expects an average increase in the number of unemployed to 140,000. His colleague assumes the DZ Bank, Philipp Jager, of an increase to 150,000 to about 3.4 million. Hunter estimates the crisis will take once the industry, but soon also the service provider”. The Institute of German economy (IW) is even an increase of 190,000 unemployed.

The negative forecast is the Munich-based Ifo Institute; It expects for 2009 even with an average increase in the number of job seekers to some 205.000. Some experts, however, hold the dark Labour market forecasts for overkill. The employer near Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft, notes that the labour market show still in surprisingly good shape. Therefore some hope there is that the core of the workforce can be kept”. Currently, the increasing ageing in Germany also throttles the increase in the number of unemployed. About 130,000 men and women of less will come in the coming year on average on the labour market, because they go around in retirement.

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