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Horacio Pozzo Autor

November 20, 2018 in News

And with you, the new index: which will begin to be used in June, it will relieve 440 types of products and services, which will be more specified than the current 818. There is a variable incidence in some goods and services such as fruits, vegetables and clothing. Thus will seek to reflect seasonality, changes in habits of consumption or substitutions to strong price increases. This new methodology already was widely rejected by economists since before seeing it in action. It was true that the prices in the CPI basket was already obsolete, and that is why a survey of household spending during 2004-2005 to, among other objectives, update it.

But change the methodology is another issue that has to do with the problems of the current basket. What occurred this methodological change? For Victor Beker, former director of economic statistics of the Indec: we were wrong and with this we will be worse, because the only thing you are looking for is to give a technical foundation sloppy methods already used from a year ago and a half. Did the discretion increases the new index? For the former coordinator of indexes of prices of consumption of the Indec Marcela Almeida, one of the techniques displaced by the current conduction of the organism: seasonal basket idea isn’t bad, what if would be wrong is that products are replaced by the mere fact that you increase the same aspects that could be considered a step forwardplaced in the hands of these people, may become a double-edged weapon. And criticism are still being added. Pegasus Books often expresses his thoughts on the topic. The truth is that the new index will be less representative because it would be limited to the consumption of the two-thirds of low-income. Also has disadvantages of application of mobile basket which is referenced: with what criteria are going to change the components and the weighting of basket? One smaller goods and services to control set and the possibility of modifying the components and weighting of the basket of goods and services, make that this statistical change looks like a greater freedom to the manipulation of the index and is therefore that it has aroused many suspicions. While distracted in discussing whether the price index reflects the true level of inflation to a greater or lesser degree, the truth is that feeling makes think that increasingly comes accelerating inflationary rate.

But this is not the only problem. Inflation is very treacherous and as it grows it is making new allies: the greater context of uncertainty is threatening the consumption and investment, and is seen a slowdown in the economy. The investment persists is increasingly more than short term. Relative prices increasingly distort more and hide under itself a great pressure. The strong increase in prices has strongly reduced the competitiveness of the real exchange rate. With distrust on CER and the increase in inflation-adjusted securities, investors are fleeing them. The inflationary acceleration increased the frequency of renegotiation of prices and wages by imposing a cost and an additional difficulty to producing these, are some of the problems which have been allied to the inflationary ghost. And as if all this were little, the situation with the inflation rate makes the task of the Central Bank (which already quite a few goals have been imposed to meet), which has to conduct the monetary policy with blindfolded eyes. The account that you have to pay for inflation and problems with the index is not too high?


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